CIO Q1 2026 Summary and Outlook

Written By May Franco

Q1 Review

Equities

Global equities entered 2026 with strong momentum, extending the late-2025 rally driven by AI investment, earnings growth, and easing monetary policy expectations. 

Early Q1 performance was strong globally, with international stocks outperforming U.S. equities (“ex-America” trade). 

Markets experienced sharp volatility in late February–March due to geopolitical tensions (notably Middle East conflict) but rebounded toward record highs by April. 

The bull market intact, but increasingly fragile and headline driven.

Fixed Income

Bond markets were driven by uncertainty around inflation and central bank policy paths. 

Inflation remained “sticky,” limiting aggressive rate cuts and keeping yields elevated. 

Expectations shifted toward fewer or slower rate cuts, creating choppy performance across sovereign bonds. 

Bonds stabilized but did not deliver strong returns due to lingering inflation concerns.


Commodities

Commodities were the top-performing asset class in early 2026, with broad gains across energy, metals, and agriculture. 

Oil prices surged amid supply disruption fears tied to Middle East tensions. 

Geopolitics + inflation hedging = strong commodity outperformance.

Outlook for the Rest of 2026

Base Case: Continued expansion, moderate returns

  • Most major institutions expect: 

  • Global growth ~3% 

  • Equity returns in the high single digits to low double digits (~7–11%) 

Earnings growth remains the primary driver, especially: 

  • AI / tech infrastructure 

  • Industrials & energy supply chains 

Key bullish drivers:

  • AI-driven capital spending

  • Broadening market leadership 

  • Potential monetary easing

Key risks to watch

  • Geopolitics

  • Inflation & interest rates (delayed lowering)

  • Valuation risk (especially tech)

Registered Representative of Sanctuary Securities Inc. and Investment Advisor Representative of Sanctuary Advisors, LLC. Securities offered through Sanctuary Securities, Inc., Member FINRA, SIPC. Advisory services offered through Sanctuary Advisors, LLC., a SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Auric Capital Partners is a DBA of Sanctuary Securities, Inc. and Sanctuary Advisors, LLC.

May Franco
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